Current State Of CIR Bill - Part 3

If you haven't read it, please see this article: How a bill becomes law.

Senate: CIR bill (S.744) was introduced by Senate "Gang of 8" on April 17, 2013. You can read the highlights of bill here. By May 7, over 300 amendments (changes) were filed by various Senators in Senate Judiciary Committee. The Committee began consideration of the legislation on May 9, 14, 16, 20 and 21. In these five days, 212 amendments were considered and voted upon. Out of these 212 amendments, 141 amendments were adopted. On evening of May 21, the Senate Judiciary Committee in a 13-5 vote decided to pass the CIR bill from the committee. So whats next?

Harry Reid (Senate Majority Leader) will introduce the CIR bill on the floor around June 10, 2013. There will be more amendments (changes) introduced by all members of Senate (around 100 amendments which were not considered in Senate Judiciary Committee may also be reintroduced gain). Recently Bob Menendez, who is a member of Gang of 8 and democrat, said that Senate does not even have 60 votes necessary to pass this bill. We will have to wait and see what amendments will be introduced in Senate next month and how long would it take to get the 60 votes necessary to pass the bill.

You can view the list of amendments here: http://www.judiciary.senate.gov/legislation/immigration/amendments.cfm

Key Issues:

a. How will border be effectively secured?
b. Healthcare for millions of undocumented (illegal) immigrants.
c. How insistent Congress should be that the administration create a nationwide electronic verification system to check workers’ legal status.
d. Conservative Republicans oppose giving any amnesty to undocumented immigrants.

USCIS I-485 & I-140 Processing Statistics As Of 03/31/13

This post has been updated. Please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/uscis-i-485-i-140-processing-statistics.html

USCIS I-140 Processing Statistics as of 03/31/2013

	TSC	NSC	National
Pending	8,479	6,284	14,817
Customer action waiting	1,601	3,032	4,633
Completed	3,681	3,802	7,485
New receipts	3,044	2,101	5,145

USCIS EB I-485 Processing Statistics as of 03/31/2013

DACA Processing Statistics as of 04/30/2013

The following show total receipts and approvals as of 04/30/2013. This update also shows the applicants by country.

Total Received: 515,922
Total Accepted: 497,960

Approvals: 291,859
Denied: 2,352

The following is the trend. Total applications show a slow-down; however in last 3 month, the USCIS approved over 116,000 applications.

Tip: Click image to enlarge. Date below was generated on May 9, 2013.



Top 10 Countries of Origin: Asian countries include India, Pakistan, Philippines and South Korea. Remaining countries are in South America.

USCIS Recently Updated I-485 Pending Inventory

USCIS recently updated the I-485 pending inventory. The only problem is the data is as of April 2, 2013 (nearly 50 days old).

You can view the April 2, 2013 inventory here: http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%2004-02-2013%20Final.pdf

We were hoping the data would be current so that it would include thousands of new cases filed in EB3 ROW categories since May 1; but it looks like we may have to wait for another three months to get that data.

This new data would definitely help in updating the GC calculator tool; though it might take few additional days to do in depth analysis.

Q. What is not included in I-485 pending inventory
A. I-485 pending inventory does not include (a) consular processing cases which is around 15% of total 140,000 visas allotted each year (b) if I-140 is approved but I-485 application is not filed, then it will also not appear in this inventory (c) I-485 applications which has already been approved.

If I-140 and I-485 is concurrently filed, then the applicant will not show up in inventory unless I-140 is approved.

Recent Blog Comments

You can view the latest 50 comments on this page sorted by Newest to Oldest. If you see any spams, please ignore it and do not click on the links.

You can see the latest 7 comments on bottom right of every page. When you click on "View More Comments", you will automatically be redirected to this page to view the last 50 of around 3,000 comments.

Website Feature # 2 and 3: GC Calculator and Locate Hidden VB

Hey guys, we have just launched GC Calculator and Locate Hidden VB

GC Calculator: This tool will help you estimate when your priority date could be current. It can estimate dates for both family based and employment based categories.

How To Use:

1. Enter your priority date
2. Enter your preference (F1, F2A, EB1, etc)
3. Enter your country (of origin or chargability)
4. Click on the Estimate button.

The calculator will show you the VB date when the PD could become current.

Currently we are optimizing the predictive algorithm for EB2 and EB3 categories; so these two are currently unavailable. It should be available soon. Also we will be tweaking the algorithm further for all EB/FB categories later this month and next month. So the values could slightly change.

In addition we have added a Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) just below the calculator. We have also added a discussion thread on that page. You can now directly discuss with everyone.

Link: http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator/


Locate Hidden Visa Bulletin:

Sometimes Department Of State (DOS) uploads the new visa bulletin in a different page and adds the link to it from the main page. This tool will allow you to scan all these different pages and find it before it is released to general public.

Website Feature # 1: 15 Minute News

Hey everyone, we will be launching many new site features this month. The first one is the 15 Minute News and you can view it at http://www.mygcvisa.com/news/

15 Minute News helps you to get the latest news of nearly any topic you want (Immigration, USCIS, Senate, Google, your favorite celebrity, etc). We have pre-populated it with few search terms. It searches through over 1000 websites globally and shows the most popular results at that time. You can find out what is going on with CIR bill, USCIS updates, or even your favorite TV show(s) anytime day or night.

In addition, it will also save all your search terms on left side navigation. This makes it easy for you to search them as often as you like by simply clicking on them from left side navigation. The searches are saved in a cookie located on your computer. If you use a different computer the search list would not be available (though it is very easy to add them again by simply searching for them).

You can also select how many results to retrieve: 10, 20 or 30.

Example: Search for USCIS, select 30 results to retrieve and click "Go" button. The system will immediately display top 30 results (sorted by time). It will also add USCIS to left side navigation under "My Search Terms".

Predictions: Visa Bulletin July 2013

For July 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/july-2013-visa-bulletin.html

For August 2013 Visa Bulletin predictions, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/06/august-2013-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

Please see below prediction for July 2013 Visa Bulletin (for both Family Based and Employment Based):

Quick Summary:

• EB1, EB4, EB 5: Current
• EB2 Rest Of World: Current
  EB2 China: 10 weeks (still behind EB3 China)
  EB2 India: TBD. See article: EB2 India Analysis & Prediction
• EB3 (ROW, China, Mexico): 5-6 months
  EB3 India: 2 weeks
  EB3 Philippines: 9 days (due to very high demand)
• F1 to F4: 1 week to 4 months

Please Note: These numbers includes the 18,000 additional visas (spillovers) from FB category to EB category. USCIS seems to have slowly started applying these spillovers to EB categories.

Family Based:

Family-Sponsored	All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed	CHINA- mainland born	INDIA	MEXICO	PHILIPPINES
F1	15MAY06	15MAY06	15MAY06	22AUG93	08JUN00
F2A	01SEP11	01SEP11	01SEP11	01AUG11	01SEP11
F2B	22AUG05	22AUG05	22AUG05	01AUG93	22DEC02
F3	22SEP02	22SEPT02	22SEP02	08APR93	08DEC92
F4	08MAY01	08MAY01	08MAY01	22SEP96	22DEC89

Employment Based: 

Analysis: Visa Bulletin June 2013

For June 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/05/visa-bulletin-june-2013.html

EB1: All EB1 categories continues to remain current. Though EB1 China and EB1 India have already used up their annual quota (and currently using visas from EB1 ROW since January 2013), this category should continue to remain current this fiscal year. However this would affect amount of spillovers to EB2 categories.

EB5: This category continues to remain current. Since demand is 75% higher than last fiscal year (according to Charles Oppenheim), the amount of spillover to EB2 category would be much lower than last year.

EB4: This category continues to remain current.

EB2 ROW: This category continues to remain current. Charles Oppenheim from Visa Office had earlier mentioned of a possible EB2ROW retrogression if demand is high. Due to expected EB/FB spillovers in next few visa bulletins, we do not expect this category to retrogress. Due to retrogression in EB2 ROW last year, it would be consuming more visas than it did last fiscal year.

EB2 India: As per Charles Oppenheims predictions, there was (again) no movement in this category. You can read this article on why EB2 India is not moving forward since May 2012. However EB2 India should FINALLY move forward in the next visa bulletin (due to EB spillovers).

EB2 China: EB2 China moved forward by 8 weeks this month. Since EB2 China has already reached 2008, most of the EB/FB spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 should go to EB2 India in the last quarter. Please also see section EB3 China.

Visa Bulletin June 2013

For analysis of June 2013 Visa Bulletin, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/05/visa-bulletin-june-2013-analysis.html

June 2013 Visa bulletin has been officially released (valid from June 1 to June 30 only). Please see below for more details.

Family Based:

Family-Sponsored	All Charge-ability Areas Except Those Listed	CHINA- mainland born	INDIA	MEXICO	PHILIPPINES
F1	22APR06	22APR06	22APR06	15AUG93	01JAN00
F2A	08JUN11	08JUN11	08JUN11	08MAY11	08JUN11
F2B	08JUL05	08JUL05	08JUL05	15JUN93	01NOV02
F3	01SEP02	01SEP02	01SEP02	01APR93	15NOV92
F4	01MAY01	01MAY01	01MAY01	15SEP96	08NOV89

Employment Based:

Analysis: June 2013 Demand Data

For June 2013 Demand Data, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/05/demand-data-for-june-2013-visa-bulletin.html

Demand Data Analysis:

Every month each country in each category (EB1, EB2 and EB3) is eligible to get 233 visas (7% * 28.6% * 140,000)/12. This does not include the 18,000 additional spillover from FB category to EB category in FY 2013.

Important Change: Until May 2013 Demand Data, DOS reported cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2012. From June 2013 Demand Data, DOS has started reporting cumulative demand prior to Jan 1, 2013.

EB2 India: Till Jan 2005, the numbers went up from 425 to 450. This means there was approximately 450-425+233= 258 extra demand added from last month. The porting rate is remaining constant around 300 cases per month in EB2 India category. Similarly the demand increased by 300 between Jan 2009 and Jan 2013.

Since there would be very few initial EB2 cases prior to Jan 2005, most of these 450 preadjudicated cases could be porting from EB3 (though porting cases are "typically" not included in demand data until PD are current). Porting typically takes 6-9 months to complete. So we may continue to see increase in demand in EB2 India.

Since EB2 India dates only reached May 2010 in the last 2 year, it means 5050 cases are pre adjudicated for PD between Jan 1, 2010 and May 2010. This comes to around 1000 per month - which is close to numbers reported in I-485 pending inventory.

Based on analysis, the porting rate from EB3 India to EB2 India should remain around 300-400 per month for month of July 2013. For the month of August 2013 and September 2013, the porting rate could increase to 1000+ per month (depending on how much visa bulletin moves forward).

The is because in FY 2013, EB category will be getting 18000 unused visa from FB categories.  Hence USCIS/DOS will most likely move dates forward in July 2013 VB for EB2 India to around 2007-2008. We will publish another post on how far EB2 India and other categories could go from July to Sept VB.

Tip: There is over 95% probability that the dates for EB2 India can retrogress back to Dec 2004 (or early 2005) from FY 2014 - which is from October 2013 Visa Bulletin.

EB2 China:  The demand prior to Jan 2009 has decreased  by 425 (2,575 to 2150). Since there is no demand in EB2 China before Jan 2008, all of FB/EB spillover in EB2 category should be applied to EB2 India (which is backlogged till Sept 2004).

June 2013 Demand Data

For analysis of June 2013 Demand Data, please click here: http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/05/analysis-june-2013-demand-data.html

Demand data for June 2013 Visa Bulletin has been released. Please see details below:

EB2 India - 20,000 Additional Cases Discovered (Updated)

New Blog Post On June 16 :  EB2 India Visa Bulletin Movement from August 2013 to December 2013

This post was updated on May 7. Please scroll below to see the latest updates.

Few lawyers are mentioning the news that USCIS recently discovered 20,000 more cases in EB2 India category.

These additional 20,000 cases have not been previously reported to DOS (Department of  State) by USCIS.

We do not know how many of these 20,000 cases have been preadjudicated. This is important because the monthly demand data only contains preadjudicated cases (and many consular processing cases) awaiting visa numbers.

If many of these cases have not been preadjudicated (since they recently discovered it), then these would not appear in the monthly demand data. The only place it would now appear is in the I-485 pending inventory (which has not been updated in the last 4 months).

DACA Approval Rate Dispute Between USCIS And CIS

The Obama administration has approved a whopping 99.5 percent of the request for the new deferred action program that protects undocumented youth from deportation and grants them work permits, a conservative think tank calculates.

The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) says this approval rate is “quite worrisome” because it appears to be “well above” the approval rates for other programs like it. It also questions whether the Obama administration is doing enough to weed out fraud in the application process for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, as it’s formally known.

“USCIS (U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services) should answer public concerns that DACA applicants are not required to prove their claims of eligibility, and that the agency is taking proper care to vet applicants so that unqualified and possibly dangerous individuals will be screened out and removed,” Jessica Vaughan, director of policy studies at CIS, said in statement.

USCIS latest data shows that by the end of March, the agency had accepted 472,004 requests for deferred action. Of those requests, 268,361 were approved and 1,377 were denied. The rest are still under review.

USCIS says 99.5 percent approval rate is ‘inaccurate’

But USCIS press secretary Christopher Bentley rejected CIS’s claim that 99.5 percent of DACA requests have been approved.

He said the accurate approval rate is 57 percent, taking into account the 472,004 requests that have been accepted and the 268,361 requests that have been approved.

Senator Marco Rubio says that CIR bill cannot pass House

Senator Marco Rubio (who is part of "Gang Of 8") said yesterday on a conservative radio talk show that the Gang of Eight’s comprehensive immigration reform bill won’t likely pass the Republican-led House.

"The bill that’s in place right now probably can’t pass the House,” Rubio told Mike Gallagher, a nationally syndicated talk show host. “It will have to be adjusted, because people are very suspicious about the willingness of the government to enforce the laws now.”

He continued: “That is a very legitimate suspicion, it’s one that I share, and if there’s anything we can do to make [the bill] even tighter … that’s exactly what we should be working on.”

The Florida Republican called the Gang of Eight bill a “starting point” and urged opponents to propose changes to the bill, not try to kill it altogether.